As the 2024 U.S. presidential election draws near, both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have each locked in their party’s nomination, signaling the likelihood of a rematch from the 2020 election. Unlike their relatively straightforward primary wins, the journey to the November general election presents substantial hurdles for both candidates, reflective of the changing attitudes and challenges within the American political landscape.
Biden’s presidency faces significant scrutiny, with approval ratings experiencing a marked decline since he took office. Dissatisfaction looms among key demographics that contributed to his prior victory, including Black and Hispanic adults, independents, young voters, and moderates. Polls denote a particular concern over his handling of the economy, with inflation and the perceived downturn of the national economy corroding support.
On the other side, Trump’s enduring challenge is to expand his appeal beyond his loyal base. Historical data underscores his difficulty in garnering support from moderates and independents—groups essential for a general election win. His approval rating has remained relatively unchanged since his presidency, with lingering skepticism about his election viability and capabilities in office from moderate Republicans.
Each candidate must navigate these diverging yet critical voter sentiments. Biden must galvanize not only his fragile coalition but also those moderates pivotal to his past success. Trump needs to bridge the gap with moderate and independent voters, as well as mitigating concerns about his extremism and suitability for the presidency. Trump’s potential edge could lie with white, non-college-educated moderate voters, a demographic split in the 2020 election.
As the clock ticks towards November, both Biden and Trump are tasked with the significant undertaking of persuading an electorate that seems increasingly critical and discerning, setting the stage for what may be a politically charged and tumultuous race to the White House.