New Delhi, March 1, 2024 – India is set to experience a notably warmer early summer this year, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). With El Nino continuing to influence the season, regions such as Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, north interior Karnataka, parts of Maharashtra, and Odisha might see more heatwaves than usual. The country is also expected to record above-normal rainfall in March, with rainfall projected to be more than 117% of the long-period average of 29.9 mm. Above-normal temperatures are likely during the March to May period across most parts of India. While no heatwaves are forecasted for north and central India in March, the Lok Sabha elections slated for April-May could see an impact due to forecasted hot conditions.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra elaborated that El Nino’s ongoing influence could be followed by neutral conditions and the potential onset of La Nina by the monsoon’s second half, traditionally associated with better monsoon rainfall. Meanwhile, the IMD announced their annual summer forecast, highlighting that the summer season, from March to May, could see hotter temperatures due to El Nino, affecting both public health and agriculture. Northwest India, which includes Delhi, may experience normal to below normal temperatures initially in March due to western disturbances bringing rainfall, potentially posing risks to wheat crops from intense rains and hailstorms.
Despite the El Nino phenomenon’s weakening, it is expected to persist into May, possibly contributing to an increased number of heatwave days and a predominantly hot summer. The summer season’s onset has been marked by quicker transitions from winter temperatures, an effect linked to global warming. In terms of rainfall in March, most parts of the country are likely to see normal to above-normal levels, except for some regions in the South Peninsula, Northeast, and extreme Northwest India, which may experience below-normal rainfall.
February’s temperatures were noted as unusually high, with the second warmest night temperatures recorded since 1901 for the country. South Peninsular India experienced its warmest February in terms of both day and night temperatures, attributed to a significant rain deficiency. As for rainfall during winter, there was a 33% shortfall overall, though an increase in western disturbances in February helped mitigate the deficit slightly. Unfortunately, these disturbances also brought hailstorms and lightning, resulting in crop damage and fatalities in several districts.
While the IMD predicted warmer temperatures for northwest India during February, frequent western disturbances led to lower than anticipated temperatures in the region. Looking ahead, further rainfall and thunderstorms are expected across the Western Himalayan Region and parts of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh until March 3, potentially impacting the early part of India’s summer 2024.